Over the last several days, I have been trying to figure out one thing about the baseball and sports cards industry. Why are we so enamored with the rookie card? I mean when you think about it, if you had to choose between Johan Santana and Phil Hughes for your team, who would you take? Don’t tell me your going to take Hughes for his potential. You’ll take Santana every time, if not you are just plain dumb. So why is Hughes card worth so much more? Is it potential? It is not merited on past performance, since he has very little. It has always been this way, ever since the 80s.
If you look at any set in the price book now, it’s not the superstars you see worth the most money, it’s the rookies. It didn’t used to be this way, it wasn’t this way until around 1987 -1988 when Kevin Elster, Gregg Jefferies, Al Lieter, Kevin Seitzer, ect . . . came along. Here’s my problem, why would any rookie card be worth more than a superstar? Roy Halladay, and I pick him, because although he is a fantastic baseball player, he is worthless in the realm of card collecting. Meanwhile Jacoby Ellsbury for the Red Sox has a 100 dollar rookie card. Why is that? He may become a good player, but at a 100 dollars, he should be a future HOFer. In reality he is more likey to have a career like Mike Cameron or Matt Lawton, than to become a Rickey Henderson. Why are these rookies expected to live up to reputations that they may never achieve?
A perfect example is Alex Gordon of the Royals. He came in and supposed to be the next Miguel Cabrera, the savior of the Royals organization. I bet he would kill to have a Vinny Castilla or Scott Rolen career, instead they want Schmidt. It’s unrealistic for these players to become superstars. It’s a 1 in 50 shot. Name me the last rookie that lived up to his hype? Puljos maybe and who before him? A-Rod? Jeter? Meanwhile hundreds of rookies have come and gone. Had cards woth 10-20 bucks now just commons. How many of Topps ’52 rookie set this year will become superstars? 1 or maybe 2? But the card companies sell you on “investments”, hoping that you will rip through pack after pack for the short print rookie. How foolish we all look for collecting Devon White cards or Wally Joyner cards or even Jose Canseco. Thinking we had millions of potential dollars in cards when it’s really just a bag of cardboard.
I like collecting cards now because I understand this and I’m not looking for the next Bonds, Santana, or A-Rod. No, instead I like the base sets. The cards no one wants. Why do I want them? Because these are your proven players. These are your veterans. If I wanted rookies, I’d collect minor league cards. I applaud the people who collect one player or even a team collector, I despise the rookie mongers. So when you think about what you are collecting, think if I had a team and had to choose between a solid veteran player and a rookie, choose the vet because he deserves it.
Nice post. I agree. Everybody seems to be caught up in the rookie craze. I have found myself doing it sometimes with autographs. Of course it is easier to get the new guys to sign vs. the veterans. So for autographs, the new guys are the way to go. For card collections, give me the proven players.
I don’t remember a whole lot of hype around Pujols when he was a rookie, but I do remember a lot surrounding Ichiro. I remember back in 1988 when Gregg Jeffries’ cards were in the $10-20 range, and they were double printed if I remember correctly!